So, will the overthrow of Roe help Democrats or Republicans in November?

Democrats in Minnesota and in the US hope that more voters who oppose an abortion ban will do something they haven’t always done: vote with that issue at the center of their decision-making.

Polls generally show a large majority of voters in favor of keeping abortion legal, though support rises and falls with additional questions about how far into the pregnancy and for what reasons. But Democratic candidates aren’t running as strong as abortion rights advocates in suburban and rural parts of the state, suggesting voters rely on other things to make poll decisions. On Friday, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in… Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s HealthDemocrats were disappointed but also encouraged that the issue could finally be top of mind in swing districts.

Erin Murphy

MinnPost file photo by Bill Kelley

Erin Murphy

“In the past, we have always discussed this issue as a potential threat, but now we know that the courts have taken away basic human rights for the people of Minnesota,” said Sen. Erin Murphy, the St. Paul DFLer who led her campaign. caucus leads. † When the court said it was up to each state to make the abortion law, it made majority control of the legislature vital to abortion politics, she said.

Abortion was less of an issue in the past, not only because the decision that abortion was constitutionally protected was decades old, but because even anti-abortion judges said they wouldn’t change the precedent, Murphy said. That has changed, she says.

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Poll before the verdict and after the verdict does suggest voters are more likely to change their mind about how to vote now that the ruling is official and not speculative, even speculation based on the leaked draft opinion in May

Q: As you may know, a leaked opinion from the US Supreme Court suggests that the Court plans to overturn Roe v. Wade, which would give states the ability to ban abortion under any circumstances. With that in mind, would you be for or against banning abortions in Minnesota in all circumstances?

Note: This poll was taken of 1,551 likely general election voters between June 3 and June 8. The modeled margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points for the Twin Cities +/- 5.4 percentage points for the urban area and +/- 3.5 percentage points for Greater Minnesota.

Source: MinnPost/Change Research poll

MinnPost/Change Research nationwide poll found broad support for Roe . preservation as the law of the nation. While support was stronger in the Twin Cities than in Greater Minnesota, there was a majority in all of Minnesota. For the past two election cycles, the suburbs have been the swing districts. The poll spawned responses from voters living in the seven-county metro area, excluding the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul. About 69 percent of respondents in the suburbs were against a total ban on abortion. In contrast, 75 percent of voters in the two largest cities responded that way, as did 61 percent of voters outside the two cities and the suburbs of the seven districts.

Question: Please indicate whether abortion should be legal or illegal in each of the following cases: In cases of rape

Source: MinnPost/Change Research poll

Question: Please indicate whether abortion should be legal or illegal in each of the following cases: To save the mother’s life

Source: MinnPost/Change Research poll

Q: Please indicate whether abortion should be legal or illegal in each of the following cases: In the first trimester of pregnancy

Source: MinnPost/Change Research poll

Q: Please indicate whether abortion should be legal or illegal in each of the following cases: If the pregnancy is not viable

Source: MinnPost/Change Research poll

Abortion supporters are hopeful, but doubt whether that support translates into votes.

“You’re asking the question that concerns us all,” said Emily Bisek, vice president of strategic communications for Planned Parenthood North Central States. “We don’t know yet whether abortion will become a priority for voters. There is much speculation that dobbs will change that.”

Moses Bratrud, the communications director for the Minnesota Family Council, said abortion is a uniquely political issue.

“I think one can easily call themselves pro-choice, but pull the lever for a pro-life candidate without feeling any contradiction,” Bratrud said. “I think there are hundreds of thousands of people in Minnesota who until now thought abortion was a sad necessity in some cases, but who are more than willing to be convinced otherwise. They want the pro-life movement to show them that women don’t need abortion—that it’s a net detriment to our society. That’s the work we’re doing, and I think it’ll show through the ballot box.”

Republican candidates celebrated the decision but also said they would rather talk about other issues.

Endorsed GOP Candidate for Governor Scott Jensen Accuses Government Tim Walz of Favoring abortions up to the time of birth.

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“I would ask Minnesotans to think carefully about that position, along with many other distinguishing differences such as gas prices, public safety and inflation, and choose better leadership that offers positive solutions,” Jensen said in a campaign statement. Walz’s staff did not respond to specific questions about his position, saying only that state law regulates when abortions are legal and does not allow non-medical abortions after about 24 weeks.† A campaign spokesman said the governor does not support abortion up to the time of birth and accused Jensen of distracting voters from his stance against abortion, even in cases of rape and incest.

State Sen.  Scott Jensen

Scott Jensen

Endorsed GOP Attorney General nominee Jim Schultz issued a similar statement, praising the court’s decision but saying DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison “will use the decision to distract Minnesotans from the disastrous policies they have enacted” . He mentioned inflation, gas prices and violent crime.

Walz and Ellison have both taken government action to defend access to abortion, both for current residents and those who may be traveling from states that prohibit or restrict access. Walz has signed an executive order ordering state agencies not to assist other states seeking to prevent or punish those traveling for abortions

And Ellison said Friday that his office would not only defend those seeking to exercise the right to travel between the states, but would follow those traveling to Minnesota back to their home states to defend that right.

“If someone comes to Minnesota and exercises their constitutional rights and goes back home, I will follow them there and file claims in court if someone tries to sue them for getting an abortion in Minnesota.” said Elison.

Attorney General Keith Ellison

REUTERS/Eric Miller

Attorney General Keith Ellison

A 1995 Supreme Court case found that state privacy protections would allow a woman to have an abortion in the state. If anti-abortion Republicans gain control of the governor’s mansion and the legislature, they cannot pass laws that override that matter. However, a GOP legislator could send a constitutional amendment to voters that would ban or restrict abortion. Governors have no say in constitutional amendments. And a GOP governor could fill state Supreme Court vacancies with judges who might otherwise rule on future abortion-related cases.

In an article posted Monday on the site of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Kyle Kondik writes that the underlying fundamentals of the 2022 election favor the GOP. The main factor is that the incumbent presidential party has lost ground in Congress in the first midterm elections in 37 of the past 40 elections. The three times they gained ground was when popular presidents had major problems in their favor.

While President Joe Biden’s popularity is extremely low, Kondik questions whether the abortion issue would matter in diverting voters from favoring Republicans—inflation, gas prices and crime—to an issue that favors Democrats, such as abortion.

“As we process Friday’s landmark Supreme Court decision to jettison, Roe vs. wade and remove the constitutional right to abortion that the court initially instituted half a century ago, we have to ask: Could this be another extraordinary circumstance that confuses the usual medium-term effect?” Kondik wrote.

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Kondik summarized the GOP’s position as follows:Roe vs. wade Leaving will not suddenly make Biden popular, nor will it supplant the very real problems in the country that weigh heavily on Biden (and Democrats).

But he noted that the first general vote held after the ruling — would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress — gave Democrats their first advantage in some time, an advantage that didn’t materialize when the ruling leaked.

“The generic mood didn’t really change when the dobbs advice was leaked in early May, although that was a hypothetical decision when this is a real one,” he wrote. “We’ll have to see if this is the start of a new trend, or just an eruption.”

Kondik also wrote that when the popular status quo changes, voters tend not to reward the party they believe has disrupted the status quo.

“The Supreme Court, dominated by Republican appointees, just changed the status quo on abortion, and the status quo on abortion was generally popular.” wrote Kondik.

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