Why Two of the Top Oscar Categories Are So Impossible to Predict

No matter who is announced as the best-actress winner at Sunday night’s Oscars, they’re pretty much all going to seem surprised—and with good reason. The category that has been the trickiest to predict all season remains incredibly tight now that voting is closed, and with best picture pretty much an apparent dead heat between CODA and The Power of the Dog, that makes for two Oscar categories with tons of intrigue.

Will anyone actually tune in to watch? That’s still a lingering question, and on this week’s Little Gold Men podcast, David Canfield, Rebecca Ford, Richard Lawson, and Katey Rich discuss both the latest efforts to juice broadcast ratings and their predictions for the winner in every single category. (For more on our Oscar predictions, as well as Richard’s picks for what should win, go here.)

The episode also includes a conversation with Bronwnyn Cosgrave fashion expert and author of Made for Each Other: Fashion and the Academy Awards, who will be in attendance at Sunday night’s show. She weighs in on what the return of in-person red carpets has meant, which stars have eschewed playing it safe in favor of true individual style, and what she’s most looking forward to seeing on the Oscar red carpet.

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You can listen to the episode above, and subscribe to Little Gold Men on Apple Podcasts or anywhere else you get your podcasts. Please sign up to text with us at Subtext, and send us all your thoughts on the Oscars—we’ll be recording an episode first thing Monday morning and will answer as many questions as we can.

And one more programming note! Starting next week, we’ll be releasing two episodes of Little Gold Men each week! Our interview segments will have an entire episode of their own and will launch on Tuesdays, while the regular conversation part of the show will continue on Thursdays as usual. We hope you enjoy the bonus dose of Little Gold Men each week!

More Great Oscars Content From Vanity Fair

— Oscars 2022 Live Updates: Follow Every Twist and Turn of the Race
— The Full List of 2022 Oscar Nominees Led by The Power of the Dog
— The Vanity Fair Oscar Party Returns: Watch the Livestream on March 27
— Fill Out Your Oscars 2022 Ballot
— Can TikTok Help Save the Oscars?
— Who Will Win Best Picture?
— The Life of the Awards-Season Parties
— What Inspired drive my car, Belfast, King Richard, Cruella, and More
— Who’s Ahead as Oscar Voting Begins?
— Oscars Producer Will Packer Wants It All
— Sign up for the “HWD Daily” newsletter for must-read industry and awards coverage—plus a special weekly edition of “Awards Insider.”

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