On the third day of hurricane season, the tropics sent me: a tropical storm warning!
Correct! Less than 72 hours after the official 2022 hurricane season, “much of southern and central Florida, including the Florida Keys” is under a tropical storm warning as of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory at 8 a.m. in the morning.
Translation: Within the next 36 hours, South Florida’s could expect “tropical storm conditions” i.e. sustained winds of 63 mph.
Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for much of southern and central Florida, including the Florida Keys. Tropical storm winds are likely to begin in Florida tonight and early Saturday. See https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb for more info. pic.twitter.com/USGWhSfcuN
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 3, 2022
As of midmorning, the system, referred to as “Potential Tropical Cyclone One,” is a low-pressure area about 400 miles southwest of Fort Myers. However, the NHC expects the storm to strengthen to a tropical storm today, after which it will become the season’s first Atlantic storm, Tropical Storm Alex.
“Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts,” the NHC advisory said. “The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later in the day, and a slight strengthening is possible as it approaches Florida today and tonight.”
The Florida Keys, west coast of Florida south of the center of Longboat Key, east coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard county line, Lake Okeechobee, and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque, and the northwestern Bahamas remain in tropical storm warning.
NHC predicts tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later tonight. The forecast shows the storm to hit southern and central Florida on Saturday. South Florida is expected to get 4 to 12 inches of rain.
“This rain could cause significant flooding and urban flooding,” the NHC advisory warns. “As of tonight and Saturday, isolated tornadoes are possible over South Florida.”
For the seventh year in a row, the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have forecast above-average Atlantic hurricane seasons as a result of the ongoing La Niña weather phenomenon, leading to cooler water in the equatorial Pacific and warmer-than-average surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Ocean and the Caribbean.
This year, they predict between 14 and 21 named storms (winds of 30 mph or higher), six to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and three to six “major hurricanes” (winds of 111 mph or higher). †
Miami-Dade County recommends a hurricane supply checklist that includes seven days of shelf-stable food, water, battery-powered appliances, and a first aid kit.