Six games over five days into Round 13 for the Queen’s Day long weekend culminated in the Dees losing their third game in a row and falling from first place on the ladder. Some thought the premiership had already been decided, but it looks like the 2022 AFL season is alive and kicking! Collingwood is now a contender, while Fremantle, Carlton and Brisbane continue to win.
Again, we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 13 Brownlow Voting Predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head over to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
Overview AFL Brownlow Round 13
Our 2022 Brownlow Medal leaders will likely all get votes in Round 13, which should make for an exciting round on the Brownlow Medal counting night. Andrew Brayshaw was best on the ground for Freo as he quickly approaches Brownlow’s lead. Lachie Neale might not get the three but he looks good for a few votes in round 13 as he still leads our Brownlow count. In the meantime Patrick Cripps played his best game in a few weeks and could also collect votes in round 13.
The most interesting match is Melbourne against Collingwood. Clayton Oliver won the award for best on the ground, but many think so Mason Cox was the match winner, so it will be interesting to see which way the umpires go!
AFL round 13 Brownlow votes
Richmond 11.11.77 def Port Adelaide 10.5.65
Richmond battled a brave Port Adelaide to start Round 13 on Thursday night. In a tough game for Brownlow votes, it was Liam Baker (26 disposals, 1 goal) who had the most leverage late in the game to help the Tigers secure victory. Dion Prestia (25 divestments, 6 disposals) and Trent Cotchin (25 divestments) were also busy. Karl Amon (29 disposals, 10 points, 1 goal) was best for the Power with Ryan Burton (25 disposals, 8 points), Travis Boak (25 disposals, 9 clearances) and Connor Rozee (24 disposals, 1 goal) were also good .
Liam Baker – 3
Karl Amon – 2
Travis Book – 1
Essendon 7.12.54 final by Carlton 12.8.80
Carlton was too strong for the Bombers on Friday night. Patrick Cripps (28 disposals, 8 wins, 1 goal), Sam Walsh (29 disposals) and George Hewett (28 disposals) led the attack in midfield, while Sam Docherty was all over the half-defender with 33 disposals and 9 points. Harry McKay scored a goal with 15 disposals, 8 points and 3 goals. Dylan Shiel was the best for Essendon with 27 disposals, 10 tackles, 8 clearances and a huge goal.
Sam Docherty – 3
Dylan Shiel – 2
Sam Walsh – 0.5
Patrick Cripps – 0.5
Fremantle 14.11.95 final Hawthorn 12.10.82
Fremantle held off a dogged Hawks outfit with Andrew Brayshaw leading the way with 37 disposals, 6 tackles and the winning goal. Brayshaw is now narrowing the lead on our Brownlow Medal standings. Caleb Serong (33 sales, 6 clearings) was strong, while Hayden Young (31 sales, 10 points) and Luke Ryan (31 divestments, 10 points) were rock solid as halfbacks. Jaeger O’Meara stood out for the Hawks with 30 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances and a goal.
Andrew Brayshaw – 3
Jaegar O’Meara – 2
Hayden Young – 0.5
Caleb Serong – 0.5
Brisbane 10.18.78 v St.Kilda 8.9.57
Brisbane didn’t have it easy, but they got the job done against the Saints. Hugh McLuggage (33 sales, 7 clearances, 1 goal), Lachie Neale (37 sales, 7 clearances), Jarryd Lyons (29 sales, 8 points) and Jarrod Berry (25 sales, 8 points) were all well in the middle of the game. contest. ground to mount the victory. Jack Sinclair (30 disposals) and Brad Crouch (26 disposals, 10 tackles, 1 goal) were the best for the Saints.
Hugh McLuggage – 3
Lachie Neale – 2
Jack Sinclair – 1
North Melbourne 7.11.53 final by GWS Giants 15.12.102
North Melbourne’s season goes from bad to worse as the Giants took an easy win. Harry Himmelberg was immense in his new role as halfback with 37 disposals, 16 points and a huge goal. Stephen Coniglio was not far behind with 34 disposals, 6 points and 3 goals in an influential role in the middle. Isaac Cumming (31 disposals, 10 points) and Tanner Bruhn (24 disposals, 7 points, 2 goals) were also good. Luke Davies-Uniacke gave his best with 33 disposals, 6 evictions and a goal on another bad day for the Joeys.
Harry Himmelberg – 3
Stephen Rabbit – 2
Tanner Brown – 1
Collingwood 12.10.82 final Melbourne 8.8.56
A rousing victory from behind for the Pies in the traditional Queen’s Day showdown against the Dees, who have now lost three at the trot. It’s a tricky game for Brownlow voices with divided opinions. Clayton Oliver won the Neale Daniher Trophy for his 43 disposals, 6 clearances and 1 goal in a brilliant performance against a losing team, but some think the match winner was elsewhere as Collingwood fans put out a rather awkward presentation after the match. Mason Cox played his best game since the 2018 Preliminary Final with 21 disposals, 8 points, 9 goals and a goal as the Pies took control of the skies in the second half as Max Gawn struggled. Other contributors for Collingwood were Jack Crisp (29 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal), Nick Daicos (33 disposals), and Brody Mihocek (16 disposals, 10 marks, 4 goals). Jack Viney (33 disposals, 12 tackles, 1 goal) and Angus Brayshaw (29 disposals, 11 points) were also excellent, as you could easily give Brownlow votes to all seven players mentioned! Very cool!
Clayton Oliver – 2.5
Mason Cox – 2.5
Jack Crisp – 0.5
Nick Daicos – 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote prediction system works, we allocate 6 votes per game so our total vote count is the same as the official 3-2-1 system, but we allocate those votes as we see fit more than three players. Some games are very hard to tell which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split achievements and when in doubt award half points to each player. So, for example, if two players dominate and it is too difficult to split their achievements, they each get 2.5 votes, while the remaining 1 vote is given to another player(s). This gives us a predictive total that is closer to their actual total, rather than guessing. We can then form a ‘range’ for each player (ie a min and max that we think players can gauge) with the idea that the variations of the half votes will be equal in the long run.
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